Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53d6…bdd7 sports 306 markets active 3d ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,131 (+3%) realized +$1,131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%229W / 77L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$125
14 days+$415
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$654
other 10% +$206
crypto 8% −$151
world 3% −$8
finance 0% −$7
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -1.9% -11.2% 60% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 191 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 30% -8.0%
≤90d 200 +0.9% -8.8% 68% 30% -8.0%
all 306 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 24% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 24% -7.5%
10% -17.4% 15% -16.4%
15% -25.4% 8% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$31 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses229 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)306 / 306
History coverage596d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 306 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$3 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $302 −$149 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $942 +$83 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $100 −$1 -0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $201 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$82 -40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $253 +$190 +75%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,771 −$353 -20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 +$97 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$34 +33%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $157 −$50 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $202 −$6 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $500 +$4 +1%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $401 −$29 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$105 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $520 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$11 -11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $701 +$34 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$3 -9%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$72 +36%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $402 +$1 +0%
Will FURIA qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$25 -25%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $852 −$92 -11%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,215 +$197 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $301 −$62 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $719 +$21 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$44 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $378 +$100 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $400 −$17 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,308 −$33 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$71 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $105 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $126 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 82¢ $150 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $302 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $138 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $372 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $218 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? SELL No 98¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $296 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 100¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $202 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $201 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 99¢ $100 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $52 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $56 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 980 history records