Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d6…c414 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$424 (-15%) realized −$424 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$161
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$371
crypto 37% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -8.8% -17.4% 72% 22% -13.8%
≤30d 131 -15.3% -23.4% 66% 22% -30.1%
≤90d 150 -18.5% -26.2% 62% 24% -25.0%
all 150 -18.5% -26.2% 62% 24% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 24% -25.0%
10% -33.3% 19% -32.2%
15% -39.7% 15% -38.8%
20% -45.6% 10% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 57
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage45d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 55¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 380 history records