Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
53 0x53d7…186d other 45 markets active 1d ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$43 (+58%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%26W / 19L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
sports 35% −$4
world 26% +$49
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 57% -20.5%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 53% -29.6%
≤90d 33 +97.7% +78.8% 58% 48% +24.5%
all 45 +66.7% +50.8% 58% 49% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.8% 49% +13.2%
10% +36.4% 47% +2.4%
15% +23.2% 42% -7.5%
20% +11.1% 33% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +133% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage274d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$4 +146%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +146%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$3 +317%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $1 +$10 +1011%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $1 +$44 +4427%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Mar 28 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 05 $1 $0 +37%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? Jan 05 $1 +$1 +122%
Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5) Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $1 $0 +5%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Oct 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16? Sep 26 $1 $0 +43%
Will Benfica win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $3 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $5 3d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 16¢ $0 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 20d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 43¢ $2 38d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 68¢ $1 40d
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 25¢ $1 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 49d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 49d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 51d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 51d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 51d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 14¢ $1 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 51d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 71d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No $5 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records