Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d8…ed05 other 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$33
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 25% −$21
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$7
politics 6% −$7
crypto 4% −$2
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)253 / 253
History coverage139d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 253 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $234 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $513 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $319 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $243 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $137 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $349 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $489 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 3h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 4h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 24h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 33h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 36h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 38h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 39h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1400 history records