Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d9…5d3a crypto 256 markets active 3d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-10%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate48%122W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$102
world 16% −$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 29% -16.7%
≤30d 38 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 26% -17.4%
≤90d 256 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 26% -20.5%
all 256 -13.8% -22.0% 48% 26% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 26% -20.5%
10% -29.4% 18% -28.1%
15% -36.3% 11% -35.1%
20% -42.5% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses122 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$4 -61%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +26%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 08 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 08 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 08 $2 +$2 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $9 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 80¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 78¢ $3 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 917 history records