Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

53 0x53dd…79a5 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$937 (+48%) realized +$937 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$388per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+25.0%	+13.1%	80%	80%	+34.3%
≤30d	5	+25.0%	+13.1%	80%	80%	+34.3%
≤90d	5	+25.0%	+13.1%	80%	80%	+34.3%
all	5	+25.0%	+13.1%	80%	80%	+34.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.1%	80%	+34.3%
10%	+2.3%	80%	+21.5%
15%	-7.6%	80%	+9.7%
20%	-16.6%	80%	-1.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$259 vs −$100 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.38 per $1 lost it wins $10.38

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$937

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$388

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 24	$513	+$269	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 24	$515	+$345	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 24	$500	+$255	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 24	$308	+$168	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 24	$105	−$100	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$513	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$515	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$500	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$308	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$105	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records