Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53de…409a
sports · 27 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$344 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$314 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$103
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage227d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$228
7 days−$278
14 days−$278
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $309 $0 −$309 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 54¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 30? No $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Anyones Legend 51¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 40¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) TYLOO 47¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $617 $0 −$617 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO3) TYLOO 41¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$72 +234%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $625 −$617 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $609 +$354 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $313 −$309 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $299 +$327 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $75 −$74 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $179 +$282 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 15 $10 +$32 +317%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO3) Nov 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 13 $57 +$15 +27%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $58 −$1 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $20 +$18 +89%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on October 30? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$9
sports 23% −$297
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $31 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $596 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $963 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $297 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $297 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $298 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 21h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster $10 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $299 35h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $75 2d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $148 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) BUY TYLOO 47¢ $20 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.0% -45.7% 25% 25% -19.9%
≤30d 16 -40.0% -45.7% 25% 25% -19.9%
≤90d 16 -40.0% -45.7% 25% 25% -19.9%
all 26 -23.5% -30.7% 31% 31% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 31% -20.0%
10% -37.4% 31% -27.6%
15% -43.4% 27% -34.6%
20% -49.0% 27% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.76 · official $102.76 (match) · 49 history records