Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53e1…f420 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$306 (+1%) realized +$320 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$418est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,182
7 days+$664
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$3,117
other 12% −$2,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +20.8% +9.3% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 70 +8.0% -2.3% 49% 47% -8.8%
≤90d 70 +8.0% -2.3% 49% 47% -8.8%
all 70 +8.0% -2.3% 49% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 47% -8.8%
10% -11.7% 47% -17.5%
15% -20.2% 47% -25.5%
20% -28.0% 43% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$380 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,876
Realized+$320
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$418
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage13d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 52¢ 50¢ $796 $771 −$26 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 57¢ $672 $690 +$18 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $306 $297 −$8 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 30¢ $116 $118 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $842 −$842 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $324 −$324 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $268 +$196 +73%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $37 +$120 +325%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $760 +$976 +128%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $600 +$951 +159%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $237 −$236 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $180 +$720 +400%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $145 +$111 +76%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $702 −$702 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $632 +$348 +55%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $502 +$1,035 +206%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $880 −$863 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $599 −$599 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $450 −$450 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,174 −$1,155 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $835 −$835 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $296 +$504 +170%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $733 +$267 +36%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $208 −$204 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,016 −$321 -32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $291 +$248 +85%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $347 −$340 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $682 −$681 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $917 −$910 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $602 +$536 +89%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $508 +$492 +97%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $64 +$59 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $204 +$309 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $500 +$480 +96%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $202 +$343 +170%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $931 +$796 +86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $78 −$76 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $309 +$200 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $199 +$392 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $508 +$608 +120%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $431 −$425 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$517 +169%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $177 +$70 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $330 +$392 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $177 +$81 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $331 +$443 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $681 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $118 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $203 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $113 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $552 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $142 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $200 14h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 14h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $600 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $3 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $56 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $3 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $4 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $5 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $11 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $55 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $185 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $26 20h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $37 21h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $268 22h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $150 32h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $611 33h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $93 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,875.98 · official $1,875.98 (match) · 241 history records