Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x53e2…c81f sports 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$305 (+9%) realized +$323 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%170W / 114L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$158
14 days−$90
30 days+$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$198
other 6% +$64
finance 0% −$5
politics 0% −$12
crypto 0% +$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -1.5% -10.9% 53% 53% -21.5%
≤30d 284 +10.9% +0.4% 60% 57% -2.3%
≤90d 284 +10.9% +0.4% 60% 57% -2.3%
all 284 +10.9% +0.4% 60% 57% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 57% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -11.7%
15% -18.0% 46% -20.2%
20% -26.0% 35% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$323
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses170 / 114
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)284 / 289
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 56¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 2¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+136%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $28 +$13 +45%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $15 +$5 +33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$34 +168%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $5 +$7 +128%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $20 +$11 +56%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $20 +$20 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $15 +$4 +27%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $5 +$8 +165%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $15 +$5 +34%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Vukic (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $15 +$3 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $17 +$16 +95%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $5 +$7 +146%
Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolo Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 2¢ $1 55m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 55m
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone SELL Franco Agamenone 100¢ $40 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 2h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 66¢ $13 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 70¢ $15 3h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 40¢ $10 3h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 37¢ $5 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $55 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $5 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 35¢ $5 3h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 40¢ $2 4h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 39¢ $5 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Mackenzie McDonald 74¢ $15 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 50¢ $10 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 100¢ $11 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Gustavo Heide 100¢ $14 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina SELL McCartney Kessler 100¢ $41 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 100¢ $31 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 67¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 57¢ $10 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 43¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Dusan Lajovic 100¢ $19 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing SELL Max Basing 100¢ $12 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 57¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 43¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.59 · official $22.59 (match) · 747 history records