Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53eb…606b crypto 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%112W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$13
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 114 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×31.34 per $1 lost it wins $31.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses112 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage81d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $234 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 11? Jun 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $229 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 5? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $228 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 30? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 29? May 27 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 28? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 24? May 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23? May 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21? May 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 21? May 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 20? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 20? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 19? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on May 19? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 17? May 16 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 16? May 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 15 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $101 3h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $16 3h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 31h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $94 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $117 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 41h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $115 42h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $87 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $47 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $70 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $117 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $108 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $117 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $117 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $117 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $116 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $48 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,100 and $1,200 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $65 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.30 · official $117.30 (match) · 317 history records