Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53eb…8ce8 sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$28 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$180
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$144
other 1% +$2
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -4.4% -13.5% 51% 47% -16.1%
≤30d 127 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 46% -13.2%
≤90d 127 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 46% -13.2%
all 127 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 46% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 42% -21.5%
15% -29.1% 39% -29.1%
20% -36.1% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 66
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions8
Markets (closed)127 / 135
History coverage9d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 48¢ 44¢ $33 $30 −$2 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Vitality 49¢ 43¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 59¢ 55¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 78¢ 74¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 47¢ 46¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +69%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +160%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 15 $13 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $69 +$13 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$18 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $42 +$19 +46%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$31 +155%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $22 +$13 +58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$29 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$8 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $35 +$13 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +107%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $63 −$61 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$7 +234%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $139 −$124 -89%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $3 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 21h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $13 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $31 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 78¢ $14 46h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $2 46h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 49¢ $29 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $29 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $16 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $22 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $26 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $20 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $28 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $82 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.06 · official $145.07 (match) · 457 history records