Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53ef…eeaa sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,134 (-5%) realized −$2,135 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%92W / 55L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,171
crypto 2% +$103
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.0% -7.8% 84% 16% -8.9%
≤30d 20 -3.1% -12.4% 80% 15% -9.1%
≤90d 65 -18.0% -25.8% 55% 28% -14.3%
all 147 -7.1% -15.9% 63% 41% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 41% -13.4%
10% -24.0% 29% -21.7%
15% -31.3% 22% -29.3%
20% -38.0% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$111 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$2,135
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses92 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage140d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil Bermuda 96¢ 96¢ $385 $385 +$0 (+0%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh South Africa 92¢ 92¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $441 +$7 +2%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $1,565 −$266 -17%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $1,359 +$13 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $920 +$39 +4%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Panama Jun 25 $348 +$52 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $1,204 +$63 +5%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $3 +$2 +82%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $1,188 +$15 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan - Completed match? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 23 $908 +$56 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $212 +$21 +10%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $377 +$14 +4%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $1,060 +$48 +4%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $583 +$8 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $1,058 +$18 +2%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $1,074 −$39 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $1,020 +$53 +5%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Jun 20 $17 +$2 +14%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $990 +$10 +1%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $17 −$10 -58%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu Apr 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $322 −$216 -67%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 23 $132 +$71 +54%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 23 $2,291 −$2,065 -90%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Apr 22 $13 −$1 -8%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 22 $357 +$137 +38%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Multan Sultans Apr 22 $844 −$369 -44%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $296 −$77 -26%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Apr 22 $1,699 +$110 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $2,406 +$121 +5%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Multan Sultans Apr 21 $151 −$81 -54%
T20 Series Nepal vs UAE: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates Apr 21 $1,255 +$109 +9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 21 $2,594 +$935 +36%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $501 −$49 -10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $612 +$85 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $70 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 18 $172 −$172 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $319 +$22 +7%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $150 +$32 +21%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $3 +$3 +105%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 07 $428 −$31 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $321 −$92 -29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $291 +$59 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil BUY Bermuda 96¢ $144 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil BUY Bermuda 96¢ $144 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil BUY Bermuda 96¢ $96 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 100¢ $438 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $56 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $19 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $31 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $19 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $19 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $19 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $31 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $21 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 95¢ $100 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 94¢ $100 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 10¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 25¢ $22 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 23¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $12 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $22 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $24 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $15 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $15 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $18 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $15 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $18 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY South Africa 92¢ $12 17h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 98¢ $4 22h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 98¢ $1,081 22h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 45¢ $49 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.58 · official $535.58 (match) · 1713 history records