Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x53f8…3365 sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$49 (+12%) realized +$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$140
14 days+$52
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$45
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +64.1% +48.5% 49% 49% +47.9%
≤30d 83 +11.5% +0.8% 35% 35% +2.6%
≤90d 83 +11.5% +0.8% 35% 35% +2.6%
all 83 +11.5% +0.8% 35% 35% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 35% +2.6%
10% -8.8% 35% -7.2%
15% -17.6% 35% -16.2%
20% -25.7% 35% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)83 / 92
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +226%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$13 +262%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ceará SC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. COD Meknès end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$13 +262%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$11 +216%
Will RCA Zemamra vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kawkab AC vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will RS Berkane vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will América FC vs. AC Goianiense end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Vila Nova FC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Finland vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will AS FAR vs. Wydad Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Athletic Club vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza BUY Marjorie Souza 11¢ $1 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Maria Herazo 0¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.98 (match) · 135 history records