Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

53 0x53f8…7473 sports 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$403 (-39%) realized −$403 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day18.4pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+16.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+29.1%	+16.8%	35%	30%	-49.3%
≤30d	20	+29.1%	+16.8%	35%	30%	-49.3%
≤90d	20	+29.1%	+16.8%	35%	30%	-49.3%
all	20	+29.1%	+16.8%	35%	30%	-49.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.8%	30%	-49.3%
10%	+5.6%	30%	-54.1%
15%	-4.6%	25%	-58.5%
20%	-13.9%	25%	-62.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +106% → late -48% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$78 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$403

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage2d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day18.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$10	+$3	+30%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 16	$10	$0	+4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$78	−$19	-25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$49	−$48	-99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$50	−$98	-198%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$49	−$98	-199%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$39	+$73	+187%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$100	−$196	-196%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$31	+320%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	+$17	+177%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$64	+655%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$200	−$200	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	Jun 15	$50	+$208	+414%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$230	−$230	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$13	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL No	100¢	$10	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$65	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$49	3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY No	96¢	$10	4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	71¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	87¢	$48	4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5	BUY Over	14¢	$10	4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5	BUY Over	76¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	89¢	$10	4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$41	5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$27	5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	35¢	$10	7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$112	8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$74	8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$49	9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	17¢	$10	10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	84¢	$19	10h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	17¢	$10	10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$9	12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	19¢	$50	29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	20¢	$50	29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$150	30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	BUY Under	81¢	$49	30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	58¢	$50	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records