Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
53 0x53fa…3bf6 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+2%) realized +$44 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +161% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip
Net edge+127%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days+$79
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$12
sports 16% −$1
crypto 3% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+136.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +169.1% +143.5% 33% 33% -34.1%
≤30d 20 +160.8% +136.0% 35% 35% -34.8%
≤90d 20 +160.8% +136.0% 35% 35% -34.8%
all 20 +160.8% +136.0% 35% 35% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +136.0% 35% -34.8%
10% +113.4% 35% -41.0%
15% +92.8% 35% -46.7%
20% +73.9% 25% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +161% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +354% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$69 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $197 $185 −$12 (-6%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $25 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $25 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $157 +$78 +50%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $258 −$255 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$197 +779%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $276 +$287 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$34 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $296 +$161 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$96 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$121 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$69 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $157 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $98 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 38h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 45h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 45h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $26 46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $25 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $558 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $95 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $83 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.35 · official $289.63 (match) · 43 history records