Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53fa…5960 weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-15%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$17
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 32% -33.5%
≤30d 34 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 32% -33.5%
≤90d 34 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 32% -33.5%
all 34 -26.2% -33.2% 32% 32% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 32% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 32% -39.9%
15% -45.4% 18% -45.7%
20% -50.8% 12% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)34 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 51¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 62¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? No 66¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 61¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 62¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 64¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? No 62¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? No 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? No 68¢ 31¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 61¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 64¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 59¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.24 · official $27.25 (match) · 78 history records