Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53fb…9a98
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$896 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$765 · open −$268
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$350
Realized−$765
Unrealized−$268
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)27 / 35
History coverage230d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 8 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 12¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-78%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 67¢ 0¢ $621 $0 −$621 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner T1 65¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? No 35¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 −$101 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $315 +$119 +38%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Jun 09 $40 +$38 +96%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 09 $500 +$269 +54%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $621 −$621 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $500 −$177 -36%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $300 +$226 +75%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Oct 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? Oct 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$991
other 34% −$34
crypto 7% −$7
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $59 3h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4h
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 62% +1.4%
≤30d 21 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 62% +1.4%
≤90d 21 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 62% +1.4%
all 27 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 52% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 52% -29.9%
10% -24.7% 44% -36.6%
15% -31.9% 41% -42.8%
20% -38.6% 37% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.44 · official $350.44 (match) · 76 history records