trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 33% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 33% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 26 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 19% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.2% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.8% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.7% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.9% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 15 | $36 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $38 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $26 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 09 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Jan 31 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jan 31 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 25 | $5 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 21 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 08 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 18 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? | Sep 02 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Sep 02 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Sep 02 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 28 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 28 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 28 | $7 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 27 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 27 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 26 | $25 | $0 | -0% |