Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x53fd…b7a9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 67% +11.6%
≤30d 5 -24.7% -31.9% 60% 40% +0.6%
≤90d 5 -24.7% -31.9% 60% 40% +0.6%
all 5 -24.7% -31.9% 60% 40% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 40% +0.6%
10% -38.4% 40% -9.1%
15% -44.4% 20% -17.8%
20% -49.8% 0% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $100 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $31 +$11 +35%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $144 +$12 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $133 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 47¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 27¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $20 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 0¢ $0 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 57¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $97 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 34¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $16 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 0¢ $12 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 49¢ $43 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 26¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records