Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53fe…5f0b other 64 markets active 5d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-21%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%52W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$87
politics 16% +$10
other 11% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 7% -0.6%
≤90d 23 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 13% +2.0%
all 55 -0.8% -10.3% 95% 7% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -28.9%
10% -18.8% 2% -35.7%
15% -26.7% 2% -41.9%
20% -33.9% 2% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$38 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses52 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage139d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Pelicans (-6.5) Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Feb 27 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.35 · official $10.35 (match) · 247 history records