Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53fe…4767 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$6
world 23% $0
tech 12% $0
crypto 10% −$2
politics 8% −$1
economics 7% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage447d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $41 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $15 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presid Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 01 $21 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $43 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 14 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $3 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $4 −$1 -20%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 21m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 51m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 51m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 30h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $22 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $40 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $10 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $10 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $40 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $41 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $41 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $41 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $35 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $27 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.89 · official $36.44 (match) · 130 history records