Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5400…df5e other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 755d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+8%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$128
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$74
sports 29% −$3
world 3% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 43% 43% +4.5%
≤30d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 43% 43% +4.5%
≤90d 21 +4.3% -5.6% 43% 43% +4.5%
all 29 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 38% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 38% -2.6%
10% -20.0% 24% -11.9%
15% -27.8% 24% -20.5%
20% -34.9% 17% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

755d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage755d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 −$2 -4%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$53 +258%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$52 +51%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$76 +250%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $124 −$27 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 06 $10 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Mar 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $19 +$3 +15%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 22 $11 +$1 +14%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 22 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $58 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 11h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $60 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 24h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 24h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 24h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $97 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $63 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.52 · official $89.52 (match) · 58 history records