Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x5402…ae7d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$43 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +344% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +302% what you keep after slip

Net edge+302%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$95per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+301.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+344.2%	+301.9%	100%	100%	+301.9%
≤30d	1	+344.2%	+301.9%	100%	100%	+301.9%
≤90d	1	+344.2%	+301.9%	100%	100%	+301.9%
all	1	+344.2%	+301.9%	100%	100%	+301.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+301.9%	100%	+301.9%
10%	+263.4%	100%	+263.4%
15%	+228.3%	100%	+228.3%
20%	+196.1%	100%	+196.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +344% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +344% · $-wt +344% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$442

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$95

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$150	$165	+$15 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$100	$75	−$25 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 13	$10	+$35	+344%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	2d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	22¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.15 · official $442.15 (match) · 9 history records