Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5403…edd5 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$635 (-8%) realized −$693 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days+$13
14 days−$337
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$453
politics 10% −$80
world 4% −$23
culture 3% −$116
sports 1% −$12
tech 1% +$27
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 35% 35% -8.8%
≤30d 39 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 41% -15.3%
≤90d 55 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 35% -17.4%
all 89 -29.5% -36.2% 35% 29% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 29% -19.8%
10% -42.3% 26% -27.5%
15% -47.9% 18% -34.5%
20% -53.0% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$1,638
Realized−$693
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)89 / 101
History coverage181d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $605 $708 +$103 (+17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $92 $102 +$10 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $110 $77 −$33 (-30%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $26 $23 −$4 (-13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $141 +$97 +69%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $164 −$36 -22%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$43 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $181 +$113 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$38 +376%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$145 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$136 +442%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $180 +$90 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jun 19 $525 −$520 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $380 +$185 +49%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$9 +22%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Jun 13 $138 +$35 +26%
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,072 +$11 +1%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week? May 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06? May 13 $25 +$5 +22%
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07? May 11 $60 +$15 +25%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listen Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be fewer than 3 major space weather events this week? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump dance during UFC 327? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 34h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $128 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 45h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 67¢ $269 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.85 · official $1,637.87 (match) · 334 history records