Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
54 0x5403…84c1 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3
world 29% −$1
politics 28% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage11d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $461 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 26 $462 −$1 -0%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $224 $0 +0%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 16 $223 $0 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $224 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $459 1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $461 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $462 3h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $462 4h
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $224 9d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $224 10d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $224 10d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $223 10d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $224 10d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $224 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records