Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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54 0x5404…5e58 sports 1093 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$265 (+1%) realized +$247 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%363W / 724L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$298
7 days−$330
14 days−$160
30 days−$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$313
other 29% −$23
crypto 1% −$120
world 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -22.4% -29.8% 25% 25% -16.3%
≤30d 461 -17.1% -25.0% 28% 27% -16.1%
≤90d 835 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 32% -10.3%
all 1087 -6.2% -15.2% 33% 33% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -9.0%
10% -23.3% 33% -17.7%
15% -30.7% 31% -25.7%
20% -37.5% 29% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses363 / 724
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1087 / 1093
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1087 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) Asu Almabayev 74¢ 100¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+35%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ 66¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+30%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Michel Pereira 25¢ 22¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $36 +$14 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $49 +$51 +104%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $29 −$29 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $41 −$41 -99%
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya Jun 27 $42 +$138 +326%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $56 +$45 +80%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 27 $25 +$5 +22%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$21 +109%
France leading at halftime? Jun 27 $28 +$22 +78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$30 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$32 +63%
ITF Kayseri: Dimitris Azoidis vs Keshav Chopra Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Anastasia Safta Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Tom Zeuch Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $13 +$17 +124%
Plovdiv: Petr Nesterov vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Asu Almabayev 74¢ $37 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $31 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 71¢ $36 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $51 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $47 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $2 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 41¢ $29 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 33¢ $2 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 33¢ $2 2h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 52¢ $5 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 55¢ $11 2h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $4 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 34¢ $7 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $27 3h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 69¢ $14 3h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 31¢ $19 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 30¢ $6 3h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 62¢ $6 4h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 62¢ $13 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 38¢ $1 4h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 38¢ $3 4h
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Mert Alkaya 49¢ $15 5h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 57¢ $12 6h
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Mert Alkaya 19¢ $10 6h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 55¢ $11 6h
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Mert Alkaya 18¢ $8 6h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 25¢ $16 6h
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Mert Alkaya 18¢ $2 6h
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Mert Alkaya 18¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.35 · official $459.05 · 3500 history records