Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5406…9815 other 30 markets active 16h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$89 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$264
14 days−$298
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$264
sports 38% −$584
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 41% -18.5%
≤30d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% -19.0%
≤90d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% -19.0%
all 27 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 44% -19.0%
10% -19.1% 44% -26.7%
15% -27.0% 41% -33.8%
20% -34.1% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $27 $7 −$20 (-74%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes $12 $4 −$9 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -94%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $134 +$54 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $105 −$23 -22%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $177 −$20 -12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$33 +155%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $95 +$66 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$35 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $475 −$475 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$33 +57%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$40 +209%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $514 −$21 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $388 +$139 +36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 −$16 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$81 +42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$6 -12%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $67 −$66 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -25%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 15h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $14 15h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $106 16h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $44 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $134 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $82 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $105 23h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $157 23h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $177 33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $54 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 35h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 35h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $95 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $63 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $50 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $43 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $475 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $493 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $514 4d
Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.69 · official $14.69 (match) · 62 history records