Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5407…5bbd
sports · 1682 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$536 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$386 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$809
Realized+$386
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses659 / 977
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1636 / 1682
History coverage31d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 46 History 1636 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$131
14 days+$124
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) New York Mets 26¢ 100¢ $31 $119 +$88 (+283%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ 88¢ $22 $43 +$21 (+98%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 42¢ 100¢ $17 $40 +$23 (+138%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 46¢ 97¢ $18 $39 +$21 (+112%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Under 27¢ 92¢ $11 $38 +$27 (+243%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 29¢ 96¢ $12 $38 +$27 (+229%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ 94¢ $11 $38 +$27 (+248%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ 83¢ $14 $33 +$20 (+144%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 44¢ 50¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+14%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 26¢ 78¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+202%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 42¢ 70¢ $17 $28 +$12 (+69%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Under 36¢ 68¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+89%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Under 42¢ 58¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+39%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Under 38¢ 57¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+50%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 30¢ 53¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+77%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 35¢ 52¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+49%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) San Francisco Giants 28¢ 50¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+80%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 27¢ 46¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+72%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 34¢ 44¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+31%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 39¢ 37¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 36¢ 38¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 26¢ 32¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+23%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 30¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Over 36¢ 26¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $17 +$23 +129%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 +$31 +283%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$27 +216%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $17 +$24 +146%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $27 +$14 +52%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$56 +238%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $33 +$12 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $12 +$23 +196%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 +$70 +133%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $44 −$3 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $11 +$29 +250%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 14 $21 −$8 -37%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$19 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $21 +$21 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $19 +$21 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 +$25 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $34 +$6 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $11 +$19 +180%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 26¢ $11 1m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $11 1m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $9 9m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 35¢ $14 10m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 15m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 24m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 36¢ $15 26m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 32m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $11 36m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 26¢ $11 39m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $22 39m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $20 44m
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $17 52m
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $10 56m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $17 57m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 36¢ $15 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $17 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $12 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 26¢ $11 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 33¢ $13 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $14 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $15 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 31¢ $13 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $15 2h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 35¢ $14 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $18 2h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 26¢ $11 2h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 423 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 38% -7.6%
≤30d 1613 +3.1% -6.8% 40% 39% -6.5%
≤90d 1636 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 39% -6.7%
all 1636 +2.7% -7.1% 40% 39% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 39% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -15.6%
15% -24.1% 36% -23.8%
20% -31.6% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $808.95 · official $810.98 (match) · 3500 history records