Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5409…9dcd finance 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$110 (-8%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%99W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$59
politics 21% −$15
world 19% +$28
finance 14% −$8
tech 7% +$8
sports 7% −$26
crypto 4% −$25
weather 3% −$8
culture 1% −$14
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -14.1% -22.3% 24% 21% -20.3%
≤30d 38 -14.1% -22.3% 24% 21% -20.3%
≤90d 91 -41.5% -47.1% 24% 20% -22.0%
all 210 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -17.0%
10% -27.6% 29% -24.9%
15% -34.6% 21% -32.2%
20% -41.0% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses99 / 111
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage588d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -9%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $48 −$9 -19%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $81 +$5 +6%
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $21 −$8 -38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$4 -8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$5 -18%
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Jun 14 $22 −$1 -4%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next elec Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next el Jun 14 $57 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Billionaire" 10+ times during NYC rally? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 13 $0 $0 -21%
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $24 −$9 -37%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -11%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 12 $33 −$23 -70%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 9? Apr 09 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 9? Apr 09 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 28? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? ( Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Embargo" this week? (March 29) Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29) Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 28? Apr 08 $1 +$2 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 46m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 40¢ $39 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 48¢ $48 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 13h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 45¢ $8 20h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 49¢ $10 22h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 49¢ $6 23h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $24 23h
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? SELL No 13¢ $2 24h
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? SELL No 15¢ $1 24h
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? BUY No 38¢ $8 24h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 25h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $66 25h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 40h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $23 40h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $23 40h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 43h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 44h
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 SELL No 25¢ $13 2d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 61¢ $12 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 63¢ $13 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 564 history records