Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5409…79db
other · 242 markets active 10h ago
0.5score
+$64,992 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64,224 · open +$732
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$92,835
Realized+$64,224
Unrealized+$732
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses189 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$836
Open positions24
Markets (closed)218 / 242
Avg bet$4,651
Trades / day144.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 24 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,547
7 days+$6,484
14 days+$6,675
30 days+$64,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $12,035 $12,054 +$18 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11,011 $11,027 +$17 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,543 $6,546 +$3 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6,214 $6,217 +$3 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,763 $5,784 +$20 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,319 $5,321 +$3 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,995 $4,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,694 $4,697 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,644 $4,651 +$7 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,411 $4,413 +$2 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,353 $4,361 +$8 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,872 $3,880 +$8 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,993 $2,999 +$6 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,994 $2,998 +$4 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,001 $2,000 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,970 $1,971 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,840 $1,963 +$123 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,262 $1,264 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $1,112 $1,260 +$148 (+13%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $883 $1,203 +$320 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,078 $1,093 +$15 (+1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 50¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,030 +$30 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,004 $995 −$9 (-1%)
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 99¢ 99¢ $110 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $617 +$367 +59%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $733 +$318 +43%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $234 −$234 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $795 −$795 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $337 −$337 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $261 +$114 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $706 +$294 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,952 +$48 +2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $640 +$360 +56%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $795 +$205 +26%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $570 +$430 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,988 +$12 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $756 +$244 +32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $509 +$773 +152%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $1,329 +$335 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $349 +$98 +28%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $800 +$200 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4,995 +$5 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $7,002 +$659 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $6,166 +$17 +0%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $995 −$995 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20,354 +$38 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,918 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,203 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9,985 +$15 +0%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $1,306 +$194 +15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6,145 +$116 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $903 +$97 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $810 −$300 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $6,597 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $7,206 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $3,432 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8,173 +$7 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $863 −$863 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,041 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $688 +$112 +16%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $441 +$559 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,277 +$22 +1%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 08 $2,014 +$686 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2,040 +$660 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $2,016 +$724 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $2,031 +$2,136 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $8,992 +$31 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,994 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $8,442 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? Jun 07 $499 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$54,967
sports 9% +$9,990
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $2 10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $20 10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $2 10h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $58 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $60 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $30 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $19 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $15 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $33 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $256 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 63¢ $77 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 63¢ $26 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 63¢ $13 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 63¢ $202 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 62¢ $3 11h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 62¢ $297 11h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 12h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $19 13h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $413 13h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $318 13h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 69¢ $56 16h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 70¢ $494 16h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 69¢ $205 16h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $2 17h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $2 17h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $136 17h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $22 18h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $4 18h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 68¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +5.1% -4.9% 82% 45% -7.1%
≤30d 218 +7.7% -2.6% 87% 35% -3.7%
≤90d 218 +7.7% -2.6% 87% 35% -3.7%
all 218 +7.7% -2.6% 87% 35% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover144.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 35% -3.7%
10% -11.9% 28% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -20.4% 18% -21.3%
20% -28.2% 10% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92,834.89 · official $92,834.90 (match) · 3500 history records