Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x540c…5c6f crypto 68 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-9%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$39
other 17% −$16
weather 6% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.5% -25.3% 29% 29% -33.5%
≤30d 68 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 40% -19.5%
≤90d 68 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 40% -19.5%
all 68 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 40% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 40% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -27.2%
15% -32.6% 35% -34.3%
20% -39.3% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 +$5 +84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$8 +465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records