Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x540f…17c1 crypto 354 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-12%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%215W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$60
other 11% −$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 44% -27.5%
≤30d 276 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 44% -27.5%
≤90d 276 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 44% -27.5%
all 354 -11.6% -20.1% 61% 43% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 43% -21.7%
10% -27.7% 30% -29.2%
15% -34.7% 21% -36.0%
20% -41.1% 14% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses215 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage105d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 354 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +186%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 808 history records