Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5415…f764 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$247 (+25%) realized +$253 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$162
other 13% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +37.0% +23.9% 50% 50% +19.5%
≤30d 14 +37.0% +23.9% 50% 50% +19.5%
≤90d 14 +37.0% +23.9% 50% 50% +19.5%
all 14 +37.0% +23.9% 50% 50% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.9% 50% +19.5%
10% +12.1% 50% +8.1%
15% +1.2% 50% -2.4%
20% -8.7% 50% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$54 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 42¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 +$98 +160%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 +$82 +134%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 +$93 +152%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$104 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $73 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $73 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $61 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $61 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $61 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $61 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $61 27h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $51 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 36h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $51 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $51 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 43h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $36 43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.21 · official $210.21 (match) · 24 history records