Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x5416…f951 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$49 (+22%) realized +$51 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit52%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+36.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+51.2%	+36.8%	65%	65%	+25.2%
≤30d	20	+51.2%	+36.8%	65%	65%	+25.2%
≤90d	20	+51.2%	+36.8%	65%	65%	+25.2%
all	20	+51.2%	+36.8%	65%	65%	+25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.8%	65%	+25.2%
10%	+23.7%	65%	+13.2%
15%	+11.8%	65%	+2.3%
20%	+0.8%	55%	-7.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +72% → late +30% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized+$51

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage6d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Neither team to score first?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-14%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$3	$2	−$0 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$15	+$18	+118%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$15	+$17	+114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 28	$10	+$4	+42%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 28	$15	+$8	+50%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$10	+$12	+119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$10	+$9	+86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners	Jun 26	$10	+$7	+73%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$20	+$17	+86%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$20	+$12	+57%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	+$12	+238%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$2	+$8	+474%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$5	+$7	+146%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$5	+$6	+124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$33	39m
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	41m
South Africa vs. Canada: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	47m
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	92¢	$14	2h
Argentina leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	94¢	$23	2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	45¢	$15	2h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	2h
Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	62¢	$15	2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$15	2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	64¢	$10	2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	45¢	$10	5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	47¢	$10	11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	53¢	$10	11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	43¢	$10	11h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	46h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	47h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Over	57¢	$10	47h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	47h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	BUY	53¢	$20	47h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	47h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	40¢	$5	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$5	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.04 · official $16.04 (match) · 36 history records