Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x541a…06cc politics 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$7
politics 39% −$8
world 13% −$2
sports 6% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$862) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,359
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage86d
Avg bet$493
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,335 $1,335 −$1 (-0%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $1,277 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will DRX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? May 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $824 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 09 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $793 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $889 −$2 -0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 29 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,290 6m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 19m
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 34m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 47m
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $213 58m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $932 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $245 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $63 18h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 100¢ $37 18h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 18h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 18h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $1,224 19h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 19h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $1,212 19h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $37 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $851 19h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $13 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $340 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 20h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 41d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 41d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 41d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 41d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 41d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,358.89 · official $1,358.89 (match) · 98 history records