Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x541b…11ce crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+3%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%92W / 25L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.7% -8.8% 90% 10% -6.6%
≤30d 33 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 9% -7.1%
≤90d 117 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 21% -6.8%
all 117 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 21% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 21% -6.8%
10% -19.2% 16% -15.7%
15% -27.0% 10% -23.9%
20% -34.2% 8% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses92 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage57d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $150 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $73 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 19 $77 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $63 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 15 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $140 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $130 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $130 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $130 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $130 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $130 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $125 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records