Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x541c…a7ec sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$381 (-48%) realized −$377 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$133
other 9% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-75.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -73.3% -75.8% 10% 10% -45.6%
≤30d 10 -73.3% -75.8% 10% 10% -45.6%
≤90d 10 -73.3% -75.8% 10% 10% -45.6%
all 10 -73.3% -75.8% 10% 10% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.8% 10% -45.6%
10% -78.1% 10% -50.8%
15% -80.2% 10% -55.6%
20% -82.2% 10% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$42 · ×4.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-3.5) England 21¢ 22¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: England (-4.5) England 11¢ 10¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Croatia 11¢ 10¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $110 +$185 +167%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 −$54 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $62 −$60 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) BUY Croatia 11¢ $51 7m
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $51 7m
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 11¢ $51 7m
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $51 7m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $207 8m
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY England 10¢ $43 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 21¢ $45 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 43¢ $88 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 26¢ $110 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $111 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 45h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $22 2d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 18¢ $41 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $13 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 6¢ $19 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 6¢ $31 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $41 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.62 · official $277.43 · 19 history records