Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

54 0x541d…032d other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$184 (-12%) realized −$129 · open −$55

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$166

7 days−$39

14 days−$4

30 days−$121

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-21.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+0.6%	-9.0%	25%	25%	-14.5%
≤30d	12	+0.9%	-8.7%	33%	33%	-20.9%
≤90d	12	+0.9%	-8.7%	33%	33%	-20.9%
all	14	-13.5%	-21.7%	29%	29%	-23.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.7%	29%	-23.1%
10%	-29.2%	29%	-30.5%
15%	-36.0%	29%	-37.2%
20%	-42.3%	21%	-43.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$55 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage

Net worth$345

Realized−$129

Unrealized−$55

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 21

History coverage105d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$215	$214	−$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	26¢	18¢	$26	$18	−$8 (-33%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	18¢	10¢	$29	$15	−$14 (-47%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$30	$1	−$29 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$82	+$238	+291%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Jun 20	$154	−$72	-47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 16	$75	−$74	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$137	−$133	-98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$111	−$6	-5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$33	−$32	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$59	+$78	+133%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$55	−$37	-67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$39	+$64	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$50	+$21	+42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 10	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$117	−$117	-100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Mar 07	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	Mar 07	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$218	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$82	14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	SELL Yes	6¢	$82	14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$75	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$137	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$105	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	21¢	$33	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$30	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	9¢	$18	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A	BUY	5¢	$64	7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND	BUY	3¢	$36	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$111	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$55	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$39	9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$29	9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	BUY Yes	13¢	$70	9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	8¢	$113	20d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	BUY Yes	8¢	$34	29d
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$26	29d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	18¢	$29	103d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	BUY Yes	16¢	$50	103d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	BUY Yes	18¢	$7	105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	BUY Yes	22¢	$20	105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY Yes	12¢	$30	105d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.93 · official $344.93 (match) · 38 history records