Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x541d…15bf crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-10%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$208
other 35% −$70
sports 2% −$9
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.2% -33.3% 33% 33% -38.6%
≤30d 12 -26.2% -33.3% 33% 33% -38.6%
≤90d 12 -26.2% -33.3% 33% 33% -38.6%
all 39 -5.8% -14.8% 49% 46% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 46% -30.5%
10% -22.9% 36% -37.2%
15% -30.4% 33% -43.2%
20% -37.2% 15% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage168d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$42 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$8 -26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $98 −$26 -27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $108 +$47 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$9 -42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 22 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 21 $44 +$5 +11%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 21 $40 +$5 +12%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 21 $30 +$10 +33%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 21 $13 +$9 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 21 $22 +$9 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 15 $13 +$5 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 15 $6 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 13 $8 +$28 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 12 $7 +$15 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $67 −$67 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 12 $15 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 11 $20 +$33 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 11 $26 −$13 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 11 $34 +$12 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 78¢ $42 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $68 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $78 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $77 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $77 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records