Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x541e…b57a sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$344 (+9%) realized +$461 · open −$117
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 57L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$180
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$58
sports 30% +$205
other 13% +$32
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -30.5% -37.1% 36% 32% -1.8%
≤30d 98 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 38% -3.4%
≤90d 98 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 38% -3.4%
all 98 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 38% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 38% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 29% -12.7%
15% -38.6% 26% -21.1%
20% -44.6% 21% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$18 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$461
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 57
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage14d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 93¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 −$10 -77%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $371 +$46 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 +$72 +105%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 −$49 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -30%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 −$32 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $341 +$67 +20%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 +$75 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$22 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $151 +$29 +19%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $138 +$237 +173%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$83 -92%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$3 +2%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$16 -89%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $21 −$20 -92%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$18 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$64 +178%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 +$36 +45%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $11 −$10 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $36 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $16 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $417 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $147 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $55 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $68 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $94 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 327 history records