trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 100% | 100% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +9.5% | -0.9% | 100% | 50% | +1.0% |
| all | 12 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 92% | 17% | -68.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.3% | 17% | -68.0% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 0% | -71.0% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 0% | -73.8% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 0% | -76.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? | Yes | 95¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? | Yes | 98¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? | Yes | 95¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? | Yes | 82¢ | 77¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? | Yes | 98¢ | 65¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-34%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? | Yes | 96¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 24 | $15 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 05 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Mar 05 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get 38.0 million or more views on day 5? | Mar 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be betwee | Mar 02 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe | Mar 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will John Fetterman attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | Feb 25 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the January meet | Feb 21 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | Feb 21 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |