Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5423…50a3 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 513d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-1%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 81L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$148
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$37
other 32% +$36
sports 11% −$84
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$87
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -12.5% -20.8% 8% 8% -12.4%
≤90d 53 -2.5% -11.7% 13% 9% -10.3%
all 110 -2.7% -12.0% 26% 24% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 24% -10.1%
10% -20.4% 24% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 23% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

513d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage513d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $516 −$3 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $834 −$6 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $165 −$29 -17%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $56 −$4 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $82 +$48 +59%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,438 −$9 -1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $630 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $400 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 23 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $320 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $330 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 17 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 17 $18 +$29 +158%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 05 $565 +$7 +1%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $7 +$4 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $114 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $106 4h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $159 18h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $164 20h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 21h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 47h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $30 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $62 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $52 8d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $90 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $36 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $62 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $50 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $50 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 16d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 444 history records