Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5424…f10d other 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$386 (+1%) realized +$388 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate65%88W / 48L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$377
7 days+$356
14 days+$356
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$359
other 35% +$203
sports 7% −$79
crypto 2% −$128
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 39% 33% -0.8%
≤30d 26 -13.0% -21.3% 38% 31% -5.2%
≤90d 49 -16.1% -24.1% 43% 20% -7.9%
all 136 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 11% -8.9%
10% -26.1% 7% -17.6%
15% -33.2% 5% -25.6%
20% -39.8% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses88 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 146
History coverage448d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $162 $160 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $176 −$10 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,421 +$347 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $86 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $123 −$35 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $57 −$5 -8%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $21 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $19 +$8 +41%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 26 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $496 −$11 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $121 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Arg Jun 24 $35 +$66 +186%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$105 -92%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $146 −$22 -15%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,067 +$24 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $95 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $64 +$31 +48%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $69 −$5 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $290 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 18 $107 +$64 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $13,591 +$160 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $3,865 +$13 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $1,787 +$42 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,093 +$31 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,187 +$51 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 07 $836 +$48 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 07 $1,716 +$11 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $4,954 +$179 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1,340 −$49 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $2,781 −$74 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $445 −$50 -11%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $921 +$92 +10%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $592 +$88 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $707 −$71 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 19 $675 −$11 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $167 13m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $66 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $176 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $169 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $95 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $144 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $136 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $50 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Sc BUY 12¢ $3 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $89 42h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $86 42h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Canada wi BUY $2 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? SELL Yes $6 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 47h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.15 · official $160.15 (match) · 1062 history records