Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5425…d3e8 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,116 (+28%) realized +$1,128 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$429
sports 18% +$646
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +74.3% +57.7% 40% 40% +25.1%
≤30d 5 +74.3% +57.7% 40% 40% +25.1%
≤90d 5 +74.3% +57.7% 40% 40% +25.1%
all 5 +74.3% +57.7% 40% 40% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.7% 40% +25.1%
10% +42.6% 40% +13.1%
15% ← realistic here +28.8% 40% +2.2%
20% +16.2% 40% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,091 vs −$365 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$862
Realized+$1,128
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 38¢ 38¢ $874 $862 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 −$107 -36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $456 −$456 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,552 +$1,004 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $194 +$1,177 +607%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $531 −$531 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $116 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $387 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $387 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 3¢ $30 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 25¢ $17 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 25¢ $3 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 25¢ $11 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 25¢ $2 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $45 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $190 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 49¢ $195 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $193 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 8¢ $71 13h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $50 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $862.50 · official $862.50 (match) · 38 history records