Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
54 0x5427…bb86 other 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,379 (+19%) realized +$3,211 · open +$168
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%101W / 126L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$588
7 days+$1,142
14 days+$2,033
30 days+$2,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$3,852
tech 7% +$209
sports 6% +$337
economics 3% −$245
crypto 3% +$212
world 2% +$615
politics 1% +$166
finance 1% +$85
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +60.2% +44.9% 67% 67% +58.2%
≤30d 36 +61.3% +45.9% 56% 53% +62.5%
≤90d 63 +50.6% +36.3% 60% 57% +38.3%
all 227 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 43% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 43% +19.4%
10% -1.3% 42% +8.0%
15% -10.9% 39% -2.4%
20% -19.6% 36% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$43 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$643
Realized+$3,211
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses101 / 126
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)227 / 234
History coverage237d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $268 $419 +$152 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $51 $88 +$37 (+74%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 18¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $199 +$101 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $132 +$204 +154%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $198 +$102 +52%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $87 +$63 +72%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $27 +$51 +187%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $146 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $155 +$95 +61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$50 +100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $189 +$141 +75%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $46 +$54 +119%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $89 +$71 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $70 +$80 +113%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $147 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $213 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $26 +$109 +425%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 +$88 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $376 +$173 +46%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $48 +$1 +3%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 11 $43 +$85 +197%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $315 +$285 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $354 $0 +0%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Freiburg reach the UEFA Europa League final? May 08 $97 +$103 +105%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $110 +$90 +82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $226 −$225 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $159 −$159 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? May 06 $102 +$148 +144%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $20 +$30 +152%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $75 +$123 +164%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $235 +$193 +82%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $10 −$6 -57%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $43 +$55 +129%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $50 +$57 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $50 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 46h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $18 47h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 47h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $30 47h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $23 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $0 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $132 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $146 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $49 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $146 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 3d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $43 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 4d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.93 · official $642.93 (match) · 878 history records