Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5429…6d2d crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$64
other 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 57% -0.8%
≤30d 30 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 57% -0.8%
≤90d 30 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 57% -0.8%
all 30 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 57% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 57% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 47% -10.3%
15% -20.7% 37% -19.0%
20% -28.5% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$50 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$8 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records