Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x542a…0312 crypto 1029 markets active 1h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,085 (-12%) realized −$6,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%396W / 610L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$128
14 days−$608
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$4,109
sports 15% −$865
politics 11% +$1,054
other 9% −$2,966
weather 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -30.4% -37.0% 31% 31% -17.3%
≤30d 345 -11.3% -19.7% 42% 41% -19.8%
≤90d 943 -11.5% -20.0% 40% 39% -19.1%
all 1006 -11.4% -19.9% 39% 39% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -21.8%
10% -27.5% 39% -29.3%
15% -34.5% 38% -36.1%
20% -41.0% 36% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses396 / 610
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1006 / 1029
History coverage668d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1006 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$37 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -96%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $118 −$69 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$23 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$37 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$33 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$34 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$41 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$20 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$29 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $180 +$240 +133%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $110 +$71 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $67 +$43 +64%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$26 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $16 +$55 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 24¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $34 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Ecuador 22¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) SELL Ecuador 22¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2169 history records