Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x542a…a81b politics 116 markets active 9h ago coverage 372d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 372d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,031 (-26%) realized −$14,112 · open −$1,919
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%18W / 84L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$529per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$9,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 372d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$9,051
other 19% +$1,117
economics 16% +$2,356
world 15% −$3,002
sports 0% −$88
culture 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -11.4% -19.8% 0% 0% -19.8%
≤30d 5 -82.3% -84.0% 0% 0% -49.6%
≤90d 17 +49.3% +35.0% 29% 29% +62.5%
all 102 -2.9% -12.1% 18% 16% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 16% -4.6%
10% -20.5% 14% -13.7%
15% -28.2% 12% -22.1%
20% -35.2% 12% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,811 vs −$253 · ×7.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$9,222
Realized−$14,112
Unrealized−$1,919
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses18 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)102 / 116
History coverage372d ⚠
Avg bet$529
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4,928 $4,106 −$822 (-17%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,919 $2,893 −$26 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,474 $1,013 −$461 (-31%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $925 $415 −$510 (-55%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? No 34¢ 37¢ $381 $409 +$28 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $108 $102 −$6 (-5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 55¢ 46¢ $55 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $153 $25 −$128 (-84%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will James Talarico be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-70%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+288%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,144 −$244 -11%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 10 $461 −$443 -96%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 08 $747 −$718 -96%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 07 $9 −$8 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $849 −$257 -30%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $954 −$481 -50%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,300 +$854 +66%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,839 +$3,285 +179%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 16 $992 −$992 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $292 −$68 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att May 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $111 +$899 +810%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Apr 30 $1,049 +$5,693 +543%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 29 $1,599 +$2,908 +182%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $14 +$4 +33%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? Mar 05 $373 −$226 -61%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 04 $1,746 −$222 -13%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $634 −$85 -13%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $740 −$738 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $499 −$294 -59%
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31? Feb 28 $64 −$52 -80%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Feb 28 $44 −$27 -61%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 19 $877 −$624 -71%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 19 $1,689 −$1,567 -93%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $1,272 −$583 -46%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $1,205 −$905 -75%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 19 $4,565 +$5,403 +118%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $919 −$839 -91%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 02 $84 −$84 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $195 −$181 -93%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $7 +$34 +485%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 30 $4 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $48 −$43 -90%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $58 −$52 -89%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $398 −$398 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 24 $28 +$18 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $64 9h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 9h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $129 9h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,003 9h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $106 9h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY Yes 50¢ $85 39h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? SELL No 52¢ $544 39h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $148 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,222.10 · official $9,222.10 (match) · 3500 history records