Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x542c…ed1c crypto 1338 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$438 (-3%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate71%955W / 383L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$115
14 days−$106
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$100
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 75% -6.8%
≤30d 1011 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 73% -10.4%
≤90d 1338 -0.8% -10.3% 71% 69% -10.2%
all 1338 -0.8% -10.3% 71% 69% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 69% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 64% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 26% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses955 / 383
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1338 / 1338
History coverage60d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$10 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$8 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$5 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $11 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $17 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records