Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x542e…e88e crypto 639 markets active 5d ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,528 (-4%) realized −$2,528 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%596W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day87.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 33% -15.8%
≤30d 600 -1.2% -10.6% 93% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 639 -1.0% -10.5% 93% 3% -9.9%
all 639 -1.0% -10.5% 93% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 3% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses596 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)639 / 639
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day87.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 639 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$22 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$23 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $48 −$28 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $44 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$21 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records